Public transport a key to curbing climate change

By Paula Wallace

The upcoming UrbanRAIL conference, taking place in Sydney on March 17th & 18th, will feature a keynote address from Professor Peter Newman (Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University of Technology) on the future of urban rail development; tackling the challenges of rail congestion; and engaging with government.
Co-author of a paper on the role of public transport in reducing the amount of private travel by car and assisting in meeting greenhouse mitigation targets, Professor Newman believes that a quantitative leap in the quality of public transport is required.
The paper, also authored by Jeff Kenworthy and Gary Glazebrook, is a departure from the common response to the challenge of transport-related emissions which usually examine the feasibilities of improving vehicle efficiency and changing fuels. These researchers, from the Curtin University and University of Technology Sydney, have tried to demonstrate how exponential decline in car use in our cities could lead to 50 per cent less passenger kilometres driven in cars.
They say that car dependent cities like those in Australia have always been increasing in car use. Measured as vehicle kilometres of travel or VKT this has been projected to go on increasing by every transport and planning agency in Australia. Yet we have to reduce greenhouse gases by at least 50 per cent by 2050 and maybe even 90 per cent. The researchers see that a quantitative leap in the quality of public transport, whilst fuel prices continue to climb, accompanied by an associated change in land use patterns, could bring about the required change.
Interestingly, what research shows is that as the use of public transport increases linearly the car passenger kilometres decrease exponentially.
This is due to a phenomenon called Transit Leverage whereby one passenger kilometre of transit use replaces between 3 and 7 passenger kilometres in a car due to more direct travel especially in trains, said Professor Newman.
It is also due to trip chaining (doing various other things like shopping or service visits associated with a commute), giving up one car in a household (a common occurrence that reduces many solo trips) and eventually changes in where people live as they prefer to live or work nearer transit.
If Sydney doubled its transit use to 3018 passenger kilometres per person it would have a per capita private transport use of 4088 passenger kilometres per capita which is a 61 per cent reduction over the 1996 figure, said Professor Newman.
Similarly, if Perth was able to continue the rapid growth in transit patronage and triple its 1996 use to around 2000 passenger kilometres per person then it would reduce its private transport use per capita to 6000 car passenger kilometres per capita, which is a reduction of 56 per cent over the 1996 level.
Similar calculations can be done for the other Australian cities. According to the researchers it is feasible that each city could set a target of increases in passenger kilometres per capita for public transport in order to achieve certain target reductions in car use as part of their commitment to reaching the national goal of 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050.
Already capacity limits have been reached across Australian cities in their public transport so, for a start substantial increases in trains, trams and buses are needed to fill the rapid growth in transit, said Professor Newman. This would be in addition to new lines and new technology like Metros and light rail to increase the capacity and speed of transit to make it attractive to use.
At the same time the cities will need to develop rapidly around transit stations.
This can be a significant source of funding for the required rail infrastructure through Value Transfer PPPs as in the very successful Chatswood Transport Interchange PPP which has created a new railway station and bus interchange along with a retail and residential complex that makes a small city around and over the station, said Professor Newman.
Significant new local transit options linking across the heavy rail corridors especially with light rail systems would also be needed.

To find out more about the future of urban rail development, register for the UrbanRAIL two-day conference, presented by the Australasian Railway Association. The conference will also feature case studies of the key light rail and metro rail projects in the region and analysis of international practice.
For more information email: Jessica.humphries@informa.com.au or visit: http://www.informa.com.au/conferences/transport/rail/ara-urbanrail-2009